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日志


4月2日

CHANGE THE ERA

THE NEO-CLASSIC ENDS
 
A NEW ORDER BEGIN TO BUILD
 
I DO THINK SO
3月4日

TALKS OVERSEAS

In February, three Wharton faculty colleagues and I had the pleasure of dining with 19 visiting students from one of China's most prestigious universities. The students were young. They were charming. They were very intelligent. And they were very, very goal-directed.

My colleagues and I had each prepared brief opening remarks, but the students were having none of it. They had elected a delegation leader, and the delegation leader, as quickly as possible, got to the question the students all wanted to address: What are the implications of the current financial and economic crisis?  

A colleague in the accounting department gave them a careful, scholarly, even-handed explanation of how firms' decisions on the repricing of assets in their portfolio could perhaps have been used, perhaps unintentionally, to create false expectations in the marketplace, and could have been done in a way undetectable to auditors, leading to over-investment in toxic subprime assets.

No, that's not what the students wanted to discuss. With much less tact, I explained that, indeed, mispricing of assets at an inflated price could have been deliberately used to create the illusion of value, and this could then have been used to create the very real rewards of wealth for the financial engineering wizards responsible for the scheme.

This got us much closer to the questions that the visiting students wanted to address. Their first round of questions were basically, How can I get that job? How can I get a high-paying job in investment banking now?

My colleagues and I attempted to convince them that those jobs simply will not exist again, at historical levels of compensation, in the months or years before these students' graduation.

This led to a second round of questions, like, What can I do while working as a desk drone in an audit firm in China to ensure that I can get into Wharton, Harvard or Stanford, and get a job in investment banking later? The students were patient. They did not need a job with a $10 million bonus now, as long as the prospect of receiving it later would still arise. 

I then suggested that perhaps they might work for companies that made things. Actual things. With a burgeoning middle class that would soon be larger than the entire population of the U.S. or Western Europe, surely there was going to be a huge domestic market for things in China. The students could pursue careers with companies that were working to develop and to sell appliances fit for a Chinese home, or mass-market, branded consumer package goods for the new middle class Chinese consumer.

This was met with stares from the students. Another colleague from the management department suggested that Chinese retailing and distribution offered two other growth opportunities for a bold young entrepreneur. Again, we got mostly stares.

I then explained that there are really only three ways for an individual to earn tens of millions of dollars a year:

--Create a company that creates real wealth and keep a piece of the company. Bill Gates did that at Microsoft , and he is, probably, still one of the five wealthiest men in America. Vanderbilt (railroads and shipping), Carnegie (U.S. Steel ) and Rockefeller (Standard Oil) did it, too. These men played hardball, seeking to crush commercial competitors, but they did successfully transform America and the world.

--Facilitate the creation of real wealth by others and keep a piece of each transaction. J. P. Morgan convinced European investors that they would earn far more investing in the fastest-growing industries in the United States than they would investing in their more developed, more mature and more slowly growing domestic markets. He directed the capital that led to the industrialization of the United States. American industrialists got rich. European investors got rich. America was transformed, and his share of each transaction ensured that Morgan became wealthy as well.

Venture capitalists, early round investors in new companies and firms that underwrite their initial public offerings all facilitate the creation of new companies and the creation of jobs and wealth, and profit from it. Early investors in Microsoft, Google, Oracle and Apple all profited quite handsomely from it.

This used to be the principal function of Wall Street firms other than those principally in retail brokerage. But it produces individual Wall Street executive wealth only slowly, and only when Wall Street produces increases in national wealth. Patient men like Warren Buffett still facilitate wealth creation, and Buffett may be richer even than Gates.

--Steal it. Stealing money is much more reliable than earning it. You can steal wealth slowly, the old-fashioned way, buried within the operations of trading for the house account. Or you can steal it quickly, by using obscure and poorly understood financial artifacts to produce the illusion of wealth creation. Then you take a piece of the illusionary wealth, as personal cash, now. Then you exit and duck for cover before the entire game blows up. Better yet, you can sell your private equity firm to naïve investors for one final twist of the knife into the carcass of your nation. (Deliberate fraud, like those allegedly committed by Bernie Madoff or Robert Allen Stanford, is too crude to be of interest to young financial engineers, and too likely to result in extreme punishment.)

I then suggested that if students were not interested in earning their money through entrepreneurship (too risky), then investment banking in China offered the next best alternative for personal wealth creation. Facilitating investment in, and growth of, companies catering to the wants, needs, cravings and longings of China's growing middle class, offers Chinese investment bankers a path toward personal wealth by creating national wealth, much as J. P. Morgan did for America.

The students, though, were uninterested in banking in China. After the students left, it took my colleagues and me a couple of hours to figure out why this was so. I-banking in China is about improving China. The students saw i-banking in America as being about improving their own personal wealth, first and foremost; if the client could be assisted without too much personal inconvenience then and only then did they see American i-banking as also being about value creation.

I asked myself, What have we done? When I thought that the craze for private equity careers and investment banking careers among the brightest Western students was the fault of Western business schools, I felt both shame (for perhaps having contributed to this) and fear (for how we as a nation could possibly compete with foreign nations where the best and brightest young students sought real careers).

Perhaps the fear was unwarranted. Perhaps the best and the brightest students of other nations also wish to transform their homelands from economic dragons into paper tigers, following the Western model. Interestingly, our own students are indeed learning to manage, learning to market, learning operations and production planning and logistics; they are working hard to get ready for a world of things. Perhaps America doesn't have as much to fear from foreign competition as we thought

-QUOTE FROM FORBES

2月13日

BACK TO THE BASICS

That's maybe the way to a recovery, for the economy and for ourselves.
9月22日

truth is hard

when you go through the websites from bloomberg to forbes, scarcely you can find the single word bubble
 
if we take the overvalued stoke market as granted or we just scare the emperor's new clothes be pointet out
 
what a shame
 
what truelly comes to the rescue: faith and sincerity
 
luckily we yet got some voice claimming at the cheating story:Irrational Exuberance by Yale economist Robert Shiller
8月27日

江流石不转

 

小样,后悔了吧,谁让你这么早结婚的!

7月14日

统一战线

昨儿在电视上看了一个有关奥运的MV,忒牛了,二、三十个人在唱一首歌,还不是齐声合唱的那种——那些大大小小的明星把歌掰的一段一段的,每个人都轮不到半句,一线的、二线的、三线的全上了,港澳台、新马泰全齐了,就差Edison。
 
哎呀,毛主席的三大法宝真不是盖的。
6月25日

go go go!

go go go!
 
go! ICBC
 
go into bankruptcy!

correlation

there are 10% people more than usual in metro as the country raised the gasoline and diesel prices by at least 17 percent to curb the energy consumption.
 
so, it is crowded, very very crowded
5月21日

殇之休止 哀之节

在灾难中团结的国人
把我们的哀恸变成自强不息的火种
 
在我们人生和国家今后将要遇到的任何一次困难中铭记全力以赴和坚持不懈
 
逝者已矣,把哀悼放在我们的心里
继往开来、全力以赴
 
奋发向上才是我们民族的精神
努力奋斗才是社会发展的主旋律
 
转自BLOOMBERG:
The damages, while equal to less than 0.5 percent of China's 2007 gross domestic product, may contribute to inflation near a 12-year high by pushing up prices of materials needed for reconstruction.
 
The real upside risk for the overall economy is inflation as the reconstruction in Sichuan eats up building materials.
 
...
 
 
拾斗志,重整我山河
 
同志们,好好工作!
5月13日

心中的一点红

吾爱吾国
 
祈福
 
祝福
 
多一点的人伸手
 
多一点的人有希望
 
绵薄之力助中华
 
成城众志降劫难
10月23日

彭老师点名

 A、被点到名字的要在自己的空间里写下自己的答案,然后去掉一个你最不喜欢的问题再加上一个你的问题,仍然组成19个问题,传给其他10个人,列出其他 10个需要回答问题的人的名字,还要给10个人留言通知对方——你被点名了,被点名者不得拒绝回答问题,完成游戏的人将会永远得到大家的祝福。
 
B、这10个人要注明是从哪里接到的,并且再传给其他10个人,让游戏继续下去,不得回传。被点到名字的人将会得到大家的祝福,并且所有美好的愿望都会在不久的将来实现。
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1.
你认为分手后的男女朋友还能做普通朋友么?
:但愿能

2.
如果给你机会..下辈子做男人还是女人,或者不做人?
:我要做飞人

3.
你最希望从朋友(不包括爱人)那里得到的是什么?
:什么都不要

4.
心情不好或者伤心的时候会怎么做?
:看电视 睡觉
 

5. 你如果天天做噩梦,完了等你醒了还能记得住梦到什么怎么办?
:我应该梦到一半就醒了,然后用意识控制住,继续睡 


6.
如果觉得自己的另一半不再爱你,你会怎么做?
: 离开


7.
今年最赞的一部影片?

答:没有最赞,不小心又看了一次阿甘,i appreciate it


8.
最近最快乐的事情是什么?
:呵呵~~   呵呵~~


9.

遇到喜欢的人,你是勇敢表白还是默默关注?
: 不太喜欢被动


10.
说出点你名得人的三个优点(不可删除题)
: 很善良 很可爱 眼睛很大

 
11.
喜欢怎样类型的BF/GF?
:长头发


12.
最想珍惜的人/事是什么?
:最珍惜大学同学

 
13.
你对你的近况满意吗?有什么需要改变?
:还行吧 希望有多点运动的机会

14.
相信一见钟情吗?
:不太信


15.
你认为男女之间有可能存在纯洁的友谊么?
:嗯 G&L

17.
如果世界只剩一天,最想做什么事?
答:从悬崖上跳下去,想了很久了

 

18. 最想做,但又不可能做的疯狂事?
答:放下一切


19.
你怎么处理曾经痛苦的回忆?
答:想些别的

 

20.你第一次见到moon的时候,是什么情景??(嘿嘿,好象很有趣)
答:大一十一假前,在教育书店门口那地方,搬书,我说让男生帮你搬过去吧,你很高兴的样子^^
点名

加一个问题

¨        如果有前生, 你觉得自己上辈子是历史中的哪个著名人物呢

小黑(如果你看到的话), Malin,梁宽侯奔, 9,邱橙Jerry,宝哥,Shirley, 石头,就这些吧

 

5月5日

哪里都一样

杭州-临安-天目山
 
N多人,N多车,N多上海人,N多上海车
 
so, what about xiaomie shanghai ren??~~
 
 
When walking along the streets of the small town, I just came back to the cities once visited.
...
...
I live in a big country I wanna know well, and I will get it one day.
4月18日

学会换位思考

learn to switch mind
 
people need to take different positions when thinking about each other
 
don't reject critiques, as for good
 
different minds and moods for different roles
 
yes, it is!
6月16日

走吧 走吧

Bye Bye!
 
My University!
 
Bye Bye!
 
My College Life!
 
Bye Bye!
 
My Guys and Girls!
5月30日

一个人的日子

一个人在外面租房大半年,尝试着自己倒弄米油盐酱醋。
 
每次逛超市,都会挑选黄牌子的特价商品,出了店门还要拿着小票一一核对价格。
 
星期天老娘来南京拿我的身份证,顺便请我吃饭,不忍丢掉吃下的剩菜,全部打包拿了回去。
 
有时候和老二两人能弄出一桌四个菜和一锅白粥觉得自己还是有点动手能力。
 
 
男人做到这种地步,潇洒又有何所谓呢。
5月17日

强手

昨日去交水费,去年11月份单子中的80块里有30块是滞纳金.......
 
我考,太黑了吧,哥们儿。
 
现在一年银行的定期存款才3%的利率,自来水厂每天竟然要收千分之五的滞纳金,一个月就是15% ,一年就是180%,黑社会啊放贷啊.....
 
以前小时候玩强手游戏就喜欢买一样颜色的地皮搞房地产,现在才知道最赚钱的是搞公共事业....
4月30日

大家颓废吗?

每天只做三件事:看书,练字,跑步
 
这已经不是个盛产英雄的年代了,可我还做着我的英雄梦。
 
累吗?
不累
 
各得其所罢了
4月24日

另辟新窝

用另外一个账号开了一个新的Space
 
在这里讲的东西,有点单调和无聊,想换点话题
 
有时候觉得这个世界是两分的,一个叫现实,一个叫理想
 
呵呵,在唯心和唯物之间我们该如何取舍